Can The Fantasy Football Stats Untrue: Like Entire 2022 Season of Garrett Wilson
Can The Fantasy Football Stats Untrue: Like Entire 2022 Season of Garrett Wilson
A quick look at the box score or a study of fantasy categories doesn’t often reflect the complete story of a player’s performance. For example, Garrett Wilson’s entire 2022 season was a farce.
Dalton Del Don makes an effort to spot potentially deceptive data that merits closer inspection.
Although Mixon had the second-most carries inside the 10-yard line last season, the league leader in this category had 17 rushing touchdowns, while Mixon only had 7.
Last year, Mixon was third in the league in red-zone attempts and sixth in team red-zone carry percentage, but only 15 players scored more rushing touchdowns.
In 2021, he played in only two more games, but he scored thirteen more touchdowns on the ground than he did the year before.
Regression to the mean in touchdowns is likely for Mixon, who led running backs in targets in the red zone and ranked fourth in targets inside the five. To rephrase, Mixon was third in the league behind Austin Ekeler and Christian McCaffrey in terms of projected fantasy points per game.
The Bengals have a potent offense, so Mixon doesn’t need to suddenly become a significantly more efficient running back at this point in his career (though it’s worth remembering that he’s still just 26 years old with moderate mileage).
There should be a lot of points for Cincinnati in its final season before its offensive studs become too pricey to remain together.
With Samaje Perine no longer an option, drafting Mixon as your team’s RB21 on Yahoo is a steal.
Amon-Ra St. Brown fabricated six receiving touchdowns. St. Brown isn’t a huge red-zone threat at 6’0″, but he should help the team score more often if used effectively in 2023.
Three times last season (and many more times inside the five), he was brought down just short of the first down while helping his teammate, NFL running touchdowns leader Jamaal Williams, lead the league.
David Montgomery, Williams’ replacement in Detroit, is the least effective running back in the league over the past four seasons and may not be a good fit for the goal-line position.
The Lions have one of the thinnest receiving units (including a full season without TJ Hockenson) outside of the Sun Gods until Jameson Williams ultimately returns from suspension. Detroit had an excellent offense previous season that averaged 33+ points at home.
St. Brown has a greater first-read target percentage (33.9) than Justin Jefferson did last season, and he has the most receptions by a player in his first two seasons in the NFL. More touchdowns will come his way in 2023 as he tied Davante Adams for the fifth-most targets in the red zone.
Fake numbers were provided by Garrett Wilson.
Even though Wilson’s stats of 1,103 yards and four touchdowns as a rookie receiver are impressive, they could have been even better. Even though he was projected to score in the top 10 for receivers, he didn’t even make the top 20.
The obvious improvement at quarterback, in Wilson, will lead to significant positive reversion in year two.
Last season, Wilson caught passes thrown by quarterbacks like Magic Mike White and 42-year-old Joe Flacco, as well as the historically inaccurate and terrible Zach Wilson.
Even at this late stage in his career, Aaron Rodgers is a huge upgrade. Despite being on the decline, he played through a fractured thumb last season. Without Zach Wilson last season, the Jets nevertheless managed to lead the NFL in passing yards.
At his current rate, Garrett Wilson would have led the league in targets and finished with 1,380 yards and nine touchdowns if Zach hadn’t been his quarterback.
While the other Jets WRs averaged 1.10 yards per route ran last year, Wilson averaged 1.85. Now he’ll be getting passes from a future Hall of Famer who last season led the NBA in deep throws.
Despite missing much of the preseason, Wilson still managed to dominate as a rookie, commanding looks in the end zone and leading the league in first-read target share inside the 10.
Despite making significant improvements at quarterback, New York really made a step back at WR2 (Elijah Moore left) this offseason.
In my 2023 fantasy rankings, Wilson is one of the top five receivers.
The numbers for Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle were fabricated.
Tagovailoa equaled Tom Brady’s touchdown throw total from the previous season while attempting 333 fewer passes. Imagine if there hadn’t been any injuries.
Tagovailoa’s YPA is historically unprecedented, yet even if he drops by 10%, he will still lead the league.
Tagovailoa was on pace for 37 touchdown passes this season until he got hurt and missed time. Rarely have two superior receivers been available to a quarterback at the same time in NFL history.
In fact, Tagovailoa has thrown 15 touchdown passes to Hill and Waddle in just three games. Despite a career low in touchdown percentage, Hill had a spectacular season last year and finished as the WR2 in fantasy.
The entire Miami offense improved dramatically with Tagovailoa in the game, and Waddle was right there with him.
It’s crazy to see Hill (172-119-1,768-10) and Waddle (124-79-1,514-11) put up those kinds of numbers for a whole season with Tagovailoa under center.
In 2023, when Hill’s 2,000-yard projection could come true, Miami’s inventive, motion-heavy system should really shine. If Tagovailoa can only stay healthy, we should be fine.
