Shohei Ohtani – Once in a Life Time Rare Talent, Really?

Shohei Ohtani is a once-in-a-generation or once in a life time talent who could be a massive free agent bust.

Multiple factors contributed to the negligible reaction to the report that the Angels were considering trading Shohei Ohtani before the August 1 deadline.

To begin with, how do you deal the greatest all-around talent the game has ever seen? Most of baseball still doesn’t believe the reeling Angels will make a move despite being only one game under.500.

As for the second point, who can pay the exorbitant cost of player and prospect for what is likely to be a two-month rental?

Finally, only a handful of teams have the financial resources to provide life time talent Ohtani the $600 million guaranteed to sign a long-term contract. We’re discussing the Dodgers and the Mets, with both teams claiming that they gave it their all.

If you think I’m about to criticise the Red Sox for being too timid in the face of a once-in-a-generation player, you’d be wrong.

Major league baseball’s biggest contracts consistently turn out to be the league’s worst investments, with costs and durations ballooning to ridiculous proportions.

It was one thing to forgive Manny Ramirez and Mark Teixeira their two worst seasons at the end of their eight-year contracts. It’s something entirely other to do it for 12 or 13 years, as is becoming the case.

There is no shortage of warning stories. Pujols, Albert. Mr. Miguel Cabrera. Mr. David Price. I’m talking about Stephen Strasburg here. Rendon, Anthony.

All heralded as heroes while receiving exorbitant salaries. Only Price went on to win a World Series, and you’ll have to weigh the $217 million in compensation against the costs associated with enjoying that one bright spot.

Please understand why I am not convinced of life time talent Ohtani’s long-term worth. Before spending a tonne of money on a free agent, a team should figure out if their new love interest is durable.

Since no one in the contemporary period has pitched every fifth day and hit the other four, there is no way to definitively answer that question for life time talent Ohtani.

Considering that life time talent Ohtani, at age 29, has already undergone Tommy John surgery, his ability to consistently throw the ball at 100 mph and hit it at 118 mph raises legitimate concerns about his durability.

Perhaps life time talent Ohtani is worth the risk of becoming a $50 million DH, but oh, what a gamble it would be.

Consider asking the 10 teams that have signed the highest-paid players if they would make the same agreements again.

Once in a life time talent Ohtani’s teammate Mike Trout has the highest projected earnings at $426.5 million through 2030. He has been plagued by injuries for the past four years, and he now broke his hamate and will be out for at least a month.

More than 175 games have gone by without Trout appearing in them since he won his third MVP in 2019 (a season that, incidentally, was cut short due to foot surgery). Great when he’s on the pitch, but who knows what his physical form will be in three or seven years from now.

The Dodgers are pleased with No. 2, Mookie Betts (12 years/$365 million). Since winning the MVP award in 2018, he has been having his finest season yet, and he shows no signs of slowing down. He can play any position on the field and has already hit 26 home runs.

Third place goes to Aaron Judge, who just tore a toe ligament after crashing through a fence in Los Angeles (nine years, $360 million). That’s not a good sign for a 31-year-old gigantic human.

Francisco Lindor (No. 4) has been decent for the Mets (10 years, $341 million), but he hasn’t been anything like the consistent Gold Glover and All-Star he was in Cleveland.

Fifth on the list is Fernando Tatis Jr. (14 years, $340 million), a very gifted youth who has already (A) been forced to switch positions from shortstop to right field due to a shoulder ailment, (B) lied to the Padres about an offseason motorcycle accident that necessitated surgery, and (C) been busted 80 games for steroids. He has tremendous talent, yet he can be rather unpredictable.

Bryce Harper, who is now restricted to DH duty after undergoing Tommy John surgery, ranks sixth (13 years, $330 million) despite having earned an MVP award and advanced to the World Series with the Philadelphia Phillies.

Giancarlo Stanton (13 years, $325 million) and Corey Seager (10 years, $325 million) share positions Nos. 7-8. The former is a one-trick slugger, while the latter is making up for a lacklustre rookie season by having a career year in Texas.

Gerrit Cole (No. 9; 9 years, $324 million) is the only reason the Yankees’ rotation is still standing. The money spent on him has been worthwhile thus far.

Tenth place is a tie between Manny Machado of San Diego and Trea Turner of Philadelphia, both of whom just inked $300 million contracts.

The former has provided San Diego with two MVP finishes in the top three, while the latter is having a slow start in Philadelphia. (In February, Machado agreed to an 11-year contract extension worth $350 million.)

Only Betts, Cole, and Machado stand out as players you’d still consider paying from that group. Perhaps Seager. They are no less than life time talents either.

Alex Rodriguez’s $275 million contract collapsed in shame, and Xander Bogaerts, who is only four months into an 11-year deal with the Padres, already needs cortisone shots.

To get Ohtani for the stretch run, the Red Sox would have to pay him the highest-paid player in history, which is why I think they’re foolish to give up Marcelo Mayer, Jarren Duran, and/or Brayan Bello.

While he would be fantastic to see in the here and now, he might not be the ideal long-term investment if you give any thought to the future.

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