Eight Stars’ Might Light Out in Fantasy NFL Drafts in 2023
Eight Stars’ Might Light Out in Fantasy NFL Drafts in 2023
In fantasy NFL Draft, the fade list is always a little contentious. Some of you will select these players in the NFL draft. Some of you may openly desire these players. That’s OK. It’s an opinion game. And I’m sure I’ll get some things wrong.
Of course, given the correct price, most players will make some sense, but I’m not going to slip that cheat code in. We must discuss ADPs that are reasonable and achievable. Sure, if everyone on this list exceeds their ADP greatly, you should reconsider. I’ll do the same.
Here are my Eight Things to Avoid in August 2023.
Josh Jacobs, running back with the Las Vegas Raiders
The problem with Jacobs isn’t his career arc — it’s only his age-25 season, his fifth year — but any running back wager is a gamble on infrastructure, and the setup in Vegas scares me.
This appears to be one of the league’s five weakest run-blocking clubs. At this point, Jimmy Garoppolo is a mediocre quarterback with durability difficulties. Jacobs is likewise destined for some decline following a fourth season that outperformed his prior three.
Headshot of Josh Jacobs
The holdout danger hasn’t fully sunk Jacobs’ ADP; he’s still in the top 20. Finally, I expect most NFL Draft players to know that their earning windows are limited, which means they’ll eventually play.
However, if I’m going to saddle up to an Anchor RB in the early rounds, I want to be confident in all of the components surrounding him. And I suppose I’d like to know if this player hasn’t already had his likely career year. Jacobs does not fit under one of those categories.
Alvin Kamara, running back, New Orleans Saints
Running back is the one position where assembling a young bunch is nearly required, and an age-28 season (which Kamara is facing) is equivalent to an age-30 season.
Kamara’s efficiency has fallen in the last two years (4.8 yards per touch since 2017; 6.2 the previous four years), and the Saints offense likes to score short touchdowns elsewhere.
Last year, Kamara only found the net four times, and now Jamaal Williams is in town to handle the short ones. To top it all off, Kamara is still subject to suspension. I’m out.
Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver
Evans is on his way to the Hall of Fame, but this could be the year when his 1,000-yard streak comes to an end.
Tom Brady’s efficiency will be missed, but so will his volume – there have only been three seasons in NFL Draft history with 700 pass attempts, and two of them were produced by Brady (2022, 2021).
There’s no way the Buccaneers will play like that with Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask at the helm. Evans is also entering his tenth professional season, and it’s reasonable to ask if he’s slowed down.
Terry McLaurin, Wide Receiver, Washington Commanders
For his whole career, I’ve been a McLaurin fan and draftee, even though the experience has frequently been marred by Washington’s terrible quarterback play. Sam Howell may or may not be able to improve matters.
But the biggest reason I won’t aggressively draft McLaurin this year (it makes me sad just thinking it) is that sophomore teammate Jahan Dotson has an ADP 44 picks lower, and he has a 40% chance of outscoring McLaurin straight up.
Travis Etienne, running back for the Jacksonville Jaguars
It was exciting to see the Jaguars offense take off last season, led by rising QB star Trevor Lawrence and a grownup in the coaching room, Doug Pederson.
However, Pederson’s game designs typically divide backfield duties, and I am concerned that Etienne will not have an inside track to short touchdowns or easy catches. Last year, Etienne didn’t even have four receptions in a single game.
He’s being drafted as a borderline RB1; before I’m tempted, he needs to be closer to the lower-end RB2 market.
Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba
For decades, it was prudent to disregard young receivers, and you profited from that decision, even with the occasional Randy Moss outburst. Then the 2014 wideout class exploded and violated every rule.
That is not to say that every rookie group has to be fantasy relevant. In general, I’d rather not deal with the growing pains of September and October and roster these players after Halloween. And if that means missing out on a young talent, so be it.
JSN is a future star, but he’s still the No. 3 receiver in a Seahawks offense that already boasts DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.
Smith-Njigba’s presence, in my opinion, sets up Lockett to be the standout asset in this group. I’ll wait two months, if not a year, for JSN. He’s not a target for August.
Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver
I’m interested to see what new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore accomplishes with this offense, but Allen’s dossier is full of stuff he doesn’t do.
Allen doesn’t go much downfield, he doesn’t play complete seasons, and he rarely scores many touchdowns – only 36 in the last six years.
Allen is also entering his age-31 season, so the career arc isn’t on his side. I’m not opposed to mixing in some dull floor bets with your upside picks, but Allen is still in the top 50, where some upside is expected. I’m not seeing it.
T.J. Hockenson, Vikings tight end
Hockenson is a competent player, and his volume increased significantly after being traded to Minnesota. However, he is being drafted as the TE3, which is tall territory for a player who will never dominate targets in his own offense.
Fantasy football managers have been wise to recognize that touchdowns are variable events, but players do have some control over their touchdown rates. In no season has Hockenson spiked more than six times.
Aside from Travis Kelce, I recommend targeting Mark Andrews, the clear featured tight end in Baltimore’s passing game.
