James Paxton Did Well Despite Of Lacking Crucial Component
In 44⅓ innings of his first eight games, James Paxton of the Dodgers struck out 24 batters while walking as many. That makes his 2.84 ERA and 5-0 record pretty impressive going into Friday night’s start against Cincinnati. Paxton is also prepared to send out a search party for one of his best secondary pitches.
About his cut-fastball, which was a crucial component of his three-pitch arsenal for the majority of his 11-year career prior to this season, Paxton stated, “The location is really unknown to me. Trying to work it out is my goal. I’m having trouble finding it even though we’re using it for catch, throwing it in the bullpen, and other activities.”
James Paxton has thrown 62% of his pitches in a career with a lively four-seam fastball that peaked in 2016 at 97.5 mph. He has also thrown a cutter 13% of the time and a knuckle-curve 19% of the time to compliment his heater.
However, Paxton used his cutter—which was clocked at 89 to 91 mph—nearly as much as his curve ball during a four-year span from 2016 to 2019. This resulted in 200 strikeouts in at-bats that ended with the cutter, and opponents were held to a.196 average (87 for 444).
James Paxton had enough faith in a decreased cutter that averaged 85.8 mph to throw it 16.5% of the time even in his first season following Tommy John surgery, with the Boston Red Sox in 2023. This allowed him to hold batters to a.191 average (13 for 68) with 26 strikeouts in at-bats that ended with the pitch.
Throwing his curveball 19.5% of the time last season, Paxton—who inked a one-year, $7 million deal with the Dodgers in January—kicked 23 batters out of at-bats that ended with his pitch, limiting hitters to a.231 average (15 for 65).
In 2024, James Paxton threw the pitch just 42 times (5.7%), meaning that the cutter was left on the cutting-room floor for the most part. On May 5, he employed a changeup that was rarely used in a 5-1 victory over the Atlanta Braves. He has thrown 458 fastballs (62.4%) and 191 curveballs (26%).
About Paxton’s ability to get by with just two pitches for the majority of the season, assistant pitching coach Connor McGuiness stated, “I think it indicates how special of a delivery he has with the disguise of the throw.” “Really, any off-speed pitch delivered by him will be effective when he is hammering fastballs in the area at 97–98 mph. He’s been quite successful this year with that curveball, and if that power really begins to return, I think that cutter is going to be very good.”
That is the main issue facing Paxton, whose cutter has lost fastball velocity following his 2021 elbow ligament replacement surgery. Paxton’s cutter, which peaked in 2016 at 90.3 mph, has averaged just 84.2 mph this season, and his four-seamer has only averaged 93.5 mph.
Regarding the cutter, Paxton, 35, stated, “I believe I used it a lot before Tommy John. It was a big swing-and-miss pitch for me. However, since the surgery, I haven’t really had it. It’s not as difficult. Before, I was throwing it between 89 and 91 mph. It is about 85 mph now. Additionally, the movement is simply not as precise as it formerly was.”
On the field, James Paxton and the Dodgers haven’t given up. In order to enhance his delivery and arm strength, Paxton has been training in bullpen sessions in between starts. If he can slightly increase the velocity of his fastball, his cutter should also get better.
Connor McGuiness said, “He has been concentrating on perfecting his delivery and regaining some of his athleticism in the throw because his fastball execution hasn’t always been as good as he would like it to be. But that cutter will come into play when he reaches a stage where he’s throwing at the desired velocity.”
Paxton’s worries in April were largely unrelated to the loss of his cutter. Although walking 22 hitters and striking out 15 in 25 ⅔ innings, Paxton’s command of every pitch was a bigger problem, as he went 3-0 with a 3.51 ERA in five starts.
Paxton did not walk a batter in his last two starts, though, after improving his delivery rhythm during a bullpen workout in early May. On May 11, he won 5-0 at San Diego by giving up four hits and striking out four in six shutout innings; on Friday night, the Reds won 7-3.
Manager Dave Roberts said, “The most amazing thing, in my opinion, is that despite walking a lot of guys—unusually for him—he has been able to limit the damage and avoid getting too irritated to the point where he costs us a run. That merely illustrates maturity and experience.”
Paxton has been able to control his frustration over losing his cutter thanks to his maturity and patience, according to McGuiness.
McGuiness remarked, “He’s just an avid gamer, man. Despite just having a fastball for a handful of his outings, he was still capable to go deep into the game to provide our offense a chance to score some runs and win. Until he truly reaches the point where he feels that his fastball velocity and delivery are there, he has been able to kind of reinvent himself. There’s a good chance that cutter will be there as well when that occurs. Because we think the best is still to come, we’re enthusiastic about him going forward.”
