Why Bucks & Damian Lillard Have Greater Task Than Celtics?
Even if he is going through “the hardest transition of my life,” Damian Lillard still has his greatest on-court obstacle to overcome.
Whatever the case, whether he deserves it or not, the 33-year-old veteran will be held accountable for the Milwaukee Bucks‘ season’s conclusion. This is the outcome of a front staff dealing an eight-time All-Star for a key player from a recent championship team. In their eyes, he represents transformation.
Right now, it seems like the Bucks are worse than they were the previous year. Last year at this time, they were three games ahead of the Boston Celtics and the Denver Nuggets, who went on to win the NBA title. With three Western Conference teams lagging them, they are currently in fifth place, ten games below the Celtics.
In the big picture, the distance between second and third in the East is not that great, but it is close enough that a single change on a team’s part could have made all the difference. A large portion of that margin does indicate that Lillard is probably to blame.
The Bucks’ offensive rating increased from 113.6 (17th) at this stage last season to 118.8 (4th) as a result of improved shooting and ball handling. We can all agree that Damian Lillard has contributed significantly to it.
However, the Bucks have declined from 109.8 (3rd) to 115.4 (16th) in defensive rating, which indicates that they are also weaker at 3-point defense and defensive rebounding.
Everyone should acknowledge that Lillard has had a part in this as well, even if they have changed coaches three times in the last ten months (from Mike Budenholzer to Adrian Griffin, Joe Prunty, and now Doc Rivers) and have substituted a number of role players (most notably Grayson Allen for Malik Beasley).
They also don’t often speak like a championship squad.
Giannis Antetokounmpo said to Sam Amick of The Athletic,
“I truly believe this has been the hardest season that I’ve played—not only physically, because I had surgery done on my left knee at the end of June.” “And I needed to reconnect with myself. However, it’s been psychologically and emotionally taxing. I won’t mislead you. It has been very difficult, starting with Coach Bud getting fired, followed by Coach Griff entering the picture and then being fired again, Coach Joe for three games, Coach Doc entering the picture, and finally Dame. It’s been difficult.”
Three weeks into his position, Rivers said, “It’s been harder than I thought.”
Lillard has disclosed that he filed for divorce three days after being traded to Milwaukee, making it much more personal: “It’s certainly been most difficult transition in my life.”
In the words of Antetokounmpo,
“I hope that step by step, I achieve where I want to be and I’m able to help the team get where we want to go.”
Lillard and Rivers ought to feel the same way. With Wednesday night’s exhibition in Boston, there is still time in the regular season to get right before the playoffs.
In November, the Celtics failed to hold a 21-point advantage over the Bucks, and in January, their opponents defeated them by 33 points. Milwaukee’s massive swing for Lillard may not have been as significant as Boston’s offseason acquisitions of Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday.
Wednesday’s game will provide further insight into the battle. It’s unfortunate that Antetokounmpo’s injury—a hamstring problem—will prevent him from playing as much as we would have hoped.
Numerous variables, including statistics and Milwaukee’s 2021 championship, strongly support Boston. Including a 2022 second-round series, the Celtics have won five playoff series to the Bucks’ one over the previous two seasons.
With an abundance of talent surrounding them, Boston’s Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown have matured into their NBA primes. In the meantime, Khris Middleton is staring up at an All-Star team that he previously played for, while Brook Lopez has reached his mid-30s due to a string of ailments.
Milwaukee could experience a regression in their favor due to the anomalous nature of its defensive stats. By forcing more midrange jumpers than all but three teams, the team’s defense has an excellent shooting profile, according to Cleaning the Glass. 44.9% are being made by the opposition.
There are only four clubs that permit a greater percentage from the midrange. It’s hard to say how much of that is related to the quality of those opportunities, but the NBA monitoring data indicates the looks aren’t any better than they were the previous season, when the Bucks allowed opponents to shoot 41.6%, the sixth-worst percentage from midrange.
Even still, unless he shows differently, Damian Lillard will be held responsible for Milwaukee’s decline in net rating from 3.8 to 3.3 this year. Though that may not sound like much, the difference feels more significant given that Boston has almost doubled its net rating to an all-time high 11.9.
Though Milwaukee’s matchup with Boston on Wednesday may present another chance to show resilience in the face of the East’s best, none of it will matter if the team is unable to advance past the second round once more. Nothing compares to the Miami Heat‘s shocking five-game upset of the Bucks in the first round of the playoffs last season.
Although chemistry may develop with time, Milwaukee must outplay Lillard in order to make the most of its time with Antetokounmpo, who provides his team a chance to win any series but requires assistance to win four.
With the exception of the season he needed abdominal surgery, Lillard’s 24.4 points per game are the fewest he has scored since 2015. His effective field goal percentage (51.2) is the lowest it has been since 2016, when he was 25 years old, and his free throw percentage is declining.
Lillard, who averages 14.7 points per night for the Phoenix Suns, will turn 34 in July. Stephen Curry, on the other hand, is two years older than Lillard and was the same age when Chris Paul was last selected to the All-NBA squad. The Bucks must consider all sides of the question: Has Lillard’s difficult transition left him out of the All-NBA conversation, or is this the start of a slow decline? Point guards are living longer than ever before.
With a contract that expires in 2026–2027, Damian Lillard will owe $58.6 million. During that same season, Antetokounmpo will have the opportunity to opt out of the $186 million, three-year extension he signed in October. This might be the fate of Milwaukee, as there isn’t much in the way of developing talent and no first-round picks available for trade until 2031.
Naturally, being in this lot isn’t all that horrible. In the postseason, Lillard has proven himself capable of taking command of the game, winning two games on his own. If he and Antetokounmpo can establish a close bond to win games, his clutch stats of 36.7 points (66.4 TS%) every 36 minutes and +84 in 114.9 minutes are reason for optimism.
Perhaps Milwaukee will receive the necessary shock Wednesday’s game against Boston to get through the difficult stretch and into the most difficult stretch of the season. Or perhaps it will be just another roadblock on the way to a third consecutive postseason defeat, with Damian Lillard and the Bucks facing difficult questions from the opposition.
